Baseball is one of the best sports in the world, and what makes it so special is how difficult it is to continue to play at a high level. Every year, we see players break out and regress. Regression is difficult to predict, even with the underlying statistics. However, players who have regressed may be the victim of “bad luck”, meaning their performance may be better than what service level stats will say. 2026 MLB bounce-back players can be headlined by one pitcher in the National League.
Former Miami Marlins top prospect Eury Perez has flashed the potential of becoming one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He shone in 2024, but in 2025, he struggled with injury, and his numbers regressed. However, upon examining the underlying metrics, a different story emerges.
In this article, we are going to break down why Eury Perez will lead the pack of 2026 MLB bounce-back players. We will break down the underlying stats, context of the 2025 season, and projection of his development heading into 2026.
Perez is one of the brightest young stars in the game. Let’s dive into why he is one of the 2026 MLB bounce-back players.
The Analytics: Why the 2025 Numbers Lied
Perez broke onto the scene in 2023, starting 19 games and finishing with a 3.15 ERA and 149 ERA+. After the start of the 2024 season, Perez ended his season getting Tommy John surgery. He missed all of the 2024 season, and 2025 looked a bit shaky, finishing with a 4.25 ERA and just a 104 ERA+. Some stats are identical from 2023 to 2025. In 20 games in 2025, Perez allowed just one more walk, three fewer home runs, 4 less hits, three fewer strikeouts, but 13 more runs. The story should not be about regression, but bad luck.
In 2023, Perez had a great season, projection-wise. He finished with a 3.63 xERA, 33.7 Whiff %, and fastball velocity at 97.5 MPH. When you compare the underlying metrics for the 2023 to 2025 season, the first thing you notice is that the velocity improved. His fastball became his most used pitched, and went from -4 run value in 2023 to 10 in 2025. His fastball jumped up in usage, going from 45% pre-injury to 51% post-injury. The main stats that “regressed” from 2023 are Hard-Hit % and Chase %. Players stopped chasing and were making better contact, but that makes sense with the higher usage of his fastball. The most intriguing part of Perez’s game that changed is pictured in the graph below:
Eury Perez struggled with locating his pitches in 2025. The fastball was the most effective pitch in his arsenal, not missing a beat with it. However, his changeup and slider struggled with being located like in 2023. Could this be the reason Perez struggled this past season? It is possible, but there is another factor that could have affected the performance of Eury Perez.
The Recovery: Shaking Off the Post-Surgery Rust
In March of 2024, Perez started feeling discomfort in his throwing arm, which was thought to be coming from a broken fingernail. After further testing, it was revealed that Perez had right elbow inflammation. To test the elbow, Perez tried a bullpen session, but after a failed session, Perez would undergo Tommy John surgery in April of 2024. This would cause him to miss all of the 2024 season and the start of the 2025 season. Perez would return in June of 2025, making 20 starts throughout the rest of the season and struggling to find the same success from 2023.
Many pitchers struggle in their first season back from Tommy John surgery. It is a feat when returning from Tommy John surgery, about 10%-20% of victims never make it back to their previous performance. In a study done by Velo University, pitchers will find their velocity to still be at full force after surgery. However, pitchers struggle to find the same command and the same torque of the arm. When pitchers first come back, they are getting comfortable on the mound again.
In Jeff Passan’s “The Arm”, Passan details the harsh reality that pitchers face once they are recovering from this surgery. Confidence, motivation, and grind are all taken away from a pitcher because the faster you try to come back, the worse long-term it can be on the arm.
The previous chart indicates that Perez was struggling to find the same success with locating off-speed pitches and having the same control over their spin rate. With a full, healthy offseason under his belt, Perez should come back better than ever and could be one of the 2026 MLB bounce-back players.
The Ace: Why Miami is All-In on Eury
Eury Perez is coming off one of the worst surgeries a pitcher can have and it takes a toll on the mind and body. Despite this, Miami has proven that Perez is a top priority, already discussing a potential extension. Perez is under team control until 2030, giving Miami and Perez plenty of time to figure out his long-term role within the organization.
Perez is going to start off the season second in the depth chart behind franchise legend Sandy Alcantara. He was going to have a great spot in the rotation, but with the trade of Edward Cabrera, Miami is trusting in Perez to stay healthy and continue to progress since his surgery.
At just 22-years-old, Perez is primed to be one of the breakout stars of the 2026 season. With a full offseason of recovery, Perez should be back to his original form he flashed throughout his 2023 rookie campaign.
Everyone should be watching Eury Perez during the 2026 season. I would not be surprise if he became one of the best pitchers in baseball and continues to help Miami outperform expectations, just like 2025. I believe that he will lead the pack for the 2026 MLB bounce-back players.
