Major League Baseball is unique compared to the other professional sports organizations in the United States. For baseball players, there are many obstacles they have to overcome to make it to the majors. For example, when you are drafted No. 1 overall in the NFL draft, your expectations for success are immediate. The NBA is the same way; as soon as you are drafted, you are expected to be an impactful player at the highest level of competition. However, in baseball, prospect paydays are very rare but could be impactful down the line.
Major League Baseball has a contract system and minor league system that prevents teams from using their players as soon as they are drafted. With that being said, teams are capitalizing on the system MLB created, and as of late, we are seeing prospect paydays.
This concept is not totally new, but we have seen it more and more over the past few seasons. The recent success of these contracts has been solid; however, throughout history, there have been some players who failed to live up to their contracts. So the real question is: are prospect paydays worth it?
Let’s dive into the recent pre-debut prospects that have received a contract before making their Major League debut and determine if the gamble is worth it.
*Research for this article is coming from MLB.com’s Matt Kelly “The earliest MLB contract extensions” and Baseball Reference.
Pioneers of the Pre-Debut Pact: Early Gambles and Cautionary Tales
The main reason for a team to sign a prospect to a long-term contract before making their Major League debut is to take the risk of getting the player at a bargain price. However, we see top prospects make the majors and not become as successful as people had imagined. There have only been nine prospects ever to receive a long-term contract before making their Major League debut, and only four of them were pre-2020. Here are the four players that received prospect paydays and their contracts they received:
- 2014 – 1B Jon Singleton, Houston Astros (5-year/$10 million)
- 2018 – 2B Scott Kingery, Philadelphia Phillies (6-year/$24 million)
- 2019 – OF/DH Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox (6-year/$43 million)
- 2019 – 1B Evan White, Seattle Mariners (6-year/$24 million)
How Did These Prospects Turn Out?
Jon Singleton was the first prospect to ever receive a long-term contract before making their MLB debut. The first baseman debuted in 2015 for the Houston Astros, and Houston quickly realized the mistake they had made. Singleton would be sent back down to the minors after 2015 and wouldn’t return to the majors until 2023, playing for both the Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers. Singleton would play in the majors this past season, but has since been released by the Houston Astros.
Scott Kingery made his debut in 2018 and struggled in his first season, finishing the season with a 61 OPS+. However, 2019 was a year to remember for Kingery, slugging .474 and finishing with 19 home runs. It would be downhill from their, not able to gain consistent playing time with Philadelphia. He signed with the Los Angeles Angels for the 2025 season and appeared in 19 games and had 29 plate appearances. He is now on the Chicago Cubs as a bench player.
Eloy Jimenez has had the most success out of this group, becoming a solid offensive player in the MLB. In his first four seasons, Jimenez had three seasons with an OPS over .800, but was not able to show off the power that he had in his rookie season, where he finished with 31 home runs. Injuries hurt Jimenez’s career, and he continued to decline and last played in the majors in 2024 with the Baltimore Orioles.
Evan White is the most disappointing player on this list. He was expected to be the future first baseman for the Seattle Mariners, but things quickly changed after receiving his contract. He made his debut in 2020 during the Covid season and struggled throughout his first season and into 2021. He has not made an appearance in the majors since 2021 and has bounced around the minor leagues since then, making him one of the biggest prospect disappointments.
The 2020s Gold Rush: From Chourio to Griffin
Since 2020, the success rate of prospect paydays has been much higher than pre-2020. However, some of these players have yet to play in the majors, but they are on track to make their debut in 2026. The success of the players who have debuted since their contract has been great, and some believe some of these players have yet to hit their ceiling. Here is the list of prospects who received long-term contracts before their Major League debut since 2020:
- OF Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox (6-year/$50 million)
- OF Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers (8-year/$82 million)
- 2B Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers (6-year/$29 million)
- SS Cooper Pratt, Milwaukee Brewers (8-year/$50 million)
- SS Colt Emerson, Seattle Mariners (8-year/$95 million)
- SS Konnor Griffin, Pittsburgh Pirates (9-year/$140 million)
How Did These Prospects Turn Out?
Luis Robert Jr. started off his career on fire, becoming one of the best young players in all of baseball. In his rookie season, he finished second in ROTY voting and won his first Gold Glove award. He peaked in 2023, becoming an All-Star for the first time and winning a Silver Slugger award. He has struggled since this incredible season, but he was traded to the New York Mets this offseason. Hopefully, the change in scenery could help him regain the same production from earlier in his career.
Jackson Chourio made his debut after just turning 20-years old. He has gotten off to a terrific start to his career. He has finished both seasons with an OPS+ over 110 and is one of the youngest players to go 20-20 multiple times. At just 22-years old, he has the potential to be one of the best players in all of baseball and one of the best prospect paydays ever handed out.
Colt Keith received a contract around the same time Jackson Chourio did, but it has taken time for Keith to make an impact. He struggled in his rookie season, finishing with a 94 OPS+. Year two was a different story, improving offensively and becoming an above-average hitter. He has gotten off to a terrific start in 2026 and should continue to grow into the player the Detroit Tigers think he can be.
Cooper Pratt, Colt Emerson, and Konnor Griffin received contracts during the 2026 season. At the time this article is released, Konnor Griffin will have made his MLB debut. He received the largest prospect payday before playing a single game in the majors. Emerson and Pratt are both projected to make their MLB debuts this season and should be key players for their teams moving forward.
Calculated Risk or Costly Crutch?
There are two different sides to this story, and I am unsure what the correct answer is. On one hand, you have the opportunity to sign a player with high upside to a bargain contract. On the other hand, you are potentially pouring millions of dollars into a player who has shown no success at the MLB level, costing your team money they could spend elsewhere. Recently, the success rate of these players has been high. These players could become busts; however, they have traits their team feels are going to translate to the MLB level.
Players like Jackson Chourio and Luis Robert Jr. prove that investing in prospects can be effective, provided they are developed correctly. However, Evan White and Jon Singleton are prime examples of why teams need to consider the potential consequences of prospect paydays.
*If you like our MLB content, make sure to check out our latest MLB article breaking down Jose Canseco’s “Juiced”!
