CJ Abrams was drafted sixth overall to the San Diego Padres in the 2019 MLB Amateur Draft. Abrams would become one of the best prospects in baseball while playing one of the game’s most important positions. However, everything would change for Abrams. He would be dealt in one of the biggest blockbuster trades in MLB history, sending Abrams and fellow prospect James Wood to the Washington Nationals for Juan Soto. After this trade, we would begin to see CJ Abrams’ breakout.
Abrams has become one of the faces of the Washington Nationals franchise. Alongside James Wood, they have become one of the most interesting yet dynamic duos MLB has to offer. Even though Washington has yet to build around him successfully, Abrams has slowly improved since becoming a Washington National.
I believe that he is destined to be one of the best shortstops in all of baseball. The talent and the potential are there, but can he continue to play at a high level for an entire season? He has yet to do so, but I believe this year can be the year of the complete CJ Abrams’ breakout.
In this article, I will be breaking down how Abrams has improved since becoming a Washington National. Then, I will break down how Abrams could continue to progress and what his career could end up turning into.
*Research in this article is from Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference.
The Evolution of a Phenom: From Speedster to Slugger
Throughout his time with the San Diego Padres, Abrams climbed through the prospect rankings. He became one of the top prospects in baseball, and at the time of the blockbuster trade sending him to Washington, he was considered a top ten prospect in baseball. Since being dealt to Washington, Abrams has slowly improved and is having a terrific start to the 2026 MLB season.
In the photo below, this is a year-by-year comparison going back to 2024, Abrams’ first full season in Washington.
Before we dive into what Abrams has improved at, let’s talk about what he has consistently displayed at a high level: baserunning. Abrams has consistently been one of the best base-runners at the shortstop position. So far this season, Abrams’ baserunning value has dipped since last season, but the offensive numbers have improved, which makes sense. Even with this dip in production on the base paths, he is still one of the fastest players in all of baseball.
It is a small sample size, but CJ Abrams has seen improvement across the board. At this point in the year, he is seeing career-highs in batting run value, expected-wOBA, expected-batting average, expected-slugging, and barrel percentage. To me, the most important improvement has been the barrel percentage, showing that he has connected the barrel of the bat (the best part of the bat) to the baseball better than ever. With a high barrel percentage, you are almost going to see improvement across the board for a player. CJ Abrams’ breakout is unfolding before our eyes.
What is Abrams’ biggest flaw? Easy answer, it defends, and it always has been. Abrams is statistically one of the worst defenders in all of baseball. Unfortunately for Abrams, he will most likely be moved to second base in the near future, especially if he is traded this season. With a switch to second base, he could see some defensive metrics improve over time.
Total Toolset Mastery: Why Pitchers Have No Clean Answer
Abrams has been crushing the baseball more than ever. He is seeing career highs in hard-hit percentage (41.6%), walk rate has almost doubled since last season, and he has improved in almost every offensive category.
What is the reason for CJ Abrams’ breakout? The answer is a combination of a bunch of different changes to his game. The first is that Abrams has improved in hitting the ball to the opposite field. Abrams’ pull-air percentage in 2024 and 2025 was over 20 percent each season; however, he has dropped it to around 17-18 in 2026. He has improved his opposite air percentage from 16.8 percent in 2025 to 25.7 percent in 2026. Abrams is starting to hit the ball to the opposite field, and the results are some of the best he has had in his MLB career.
CJ Abrams has continued to find success against the four-seam fastball, but he is posting career numbers against the pitch this season. Last season, Abrams hit .259, slugged .434, and had a wOBA of .347 against the four-seam fastball; however, he has improved even more in 2026. As of May 11th, Abrams is batting .321, slugging .625, and has a wOBA of .447. He has continued to improve against the fastball, but what about his performance against breaking balls?
Abrams has seen significant improvement against breaking balls. The two breaking balls that he has seen the most in 2026 are the slider and curveball. In 2025, Abrams struggled against the slider and curveball, finishing with a batting average and slugging of .210/.383 and .145/.323. However, he has improved tremendously against the two breaking balls. Against the curveball, he is batting .318 and slugging .545. Against the slider, he is batting .261 and slugging .435, showing that he is slowly improving against breaking balls. CJ Abrams’ breakout has been on full display.
The New Face of the District: Defining a Franchise Legacy
CJ Abrams’ breakout could be seen as a fluke. Over the past two seasons, Abrams has gotten off to terrific starts, but he starts to fizzle out towards the end of the season. However, I believe that this season is different.
The shortstop has continued to improve in his biggest areas of weakness. He is hitting breaking balls at a personal best, hitting the ball to the opposite field more than ever, and has continued to combine his elite speed with a unique bat.
Regardless of if he stays as a Washington National throughout the season, Abrams can contribute on any team in the MLB. Combine his improving offense with horrific defense, and the switch to second base seems inevitable. With that being the case, this could make him one of the best second basemen in baseball immediately. Whether he stays at shortstop or second base, CJ Abrams’ breakout season has been a pleasure to watch.
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