The American League West has been consistently a competitive division in the MLB. The Houston Astros dominated the division throughout the late 2010s and the early 2020s. However, the division has become even more competitive with the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers both competing at a high level. The Los Angeles Angels and Athletics have been rebuilding for several years, but have the talent to compete for 162 games.
But who can win the American League West in 2026? I will discuss and predict over/under predictions on each team’s total win total as given by sportsbooks. I understand the reason for the numbers assigned to each team throughout baseball, but I will present my argument for why I either love or disagree with the given line.
Remember, we do not endorse underage gambling and this article is not betting advice. Using the sports books’ line gives the fan an understanding of what is expected from each team in 2026.
Let’s dive into the American League West.
*Research and season win totals will be coming from Sports Reference and FanDuel.
Seattle Mariners – 90.5 Wins
2025 Record – 90-72 (1st Place in the American League West)
Seattle finally broke through the “mediocre” stereotype that have gained over the past decade. They won the American League West after dominating baseball after the All-Star break. With an incredible pitching staff and a solid lineup, they were able to make it all the way to the ALCS, facing off against the equally red-hot Toronto Blue Jays. They would fall short of the World Series, but 2025 was a successful season, and they are considered one of the best teams in the American League heading into the 2026 season.
This squad is loaded with talent, and the driving force behind Seattle’s success is its starting rotation. Seattle has one of the most talented and deep starting rotations in the MLB, led by All-Star Bryan Woo and Logan Gilbert. But Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby are stellar arms filling out this rotation. The bullpen contains one of the best closers in baseball, Andres Munoz. The lineup contains solid pieces, but is headlined by the best catcher in baseball. Cal Raleigh is coming arguably the best catching season of all time, breaking multiple offensive records for his position. Julio Rodriguez is considered to be one of the best center fielders in baseball, creating a dangerous duo at the top of Seattle’s lineup.
Seattle made two moves that stick out more than the other small, depth moves. Early in the offseason, Seattle traded catching prospect Henry Ford for flame-throwing lefty Jose A. Ferrer from the Washington Nationals. The second move could be the move that pushes them to be the best team in the American League. In a three-team trade, Seattle gave up a prospect haul to acquire All-Star second baseman Brendan Donovan, filling a void in the infield. Donovan offers defensive versatility, gold-glove level defense, and an .800 OPS bat. Seattle has had a great offseason, building a team that can compete with the best in baseball.
I love the Seattle Mariners for 2026. They addressed a huge issue in the infield, acquiring an All-Star in the process. They have brought in-depth bullpen arms to an already phenomenal bullpen. The starting rotation is one of the best in baseball and could carry Seattle to playoff success.
Prediction: Over 90.5 Wins
Houston Astros – 85.5 Wins
2025 Record – 87-75 (2nd Place in the American League West)
Houston has consistently been at the top of the American League West for the past decade. They dominated the 2010s, winning multiple World Series. However, looming over the organization’s head is the “trash can” scandal and shocked the baseball world, destroying the reputation of the organization. However, since the scandal, they have continued to silence the haters, acquiring top-tier free agents and developing talent throughout their farm system.
Before the 2025 season, Houston traded All-Star Kyle Tucker for prospects and young third baseman Isaac Paredes. One of the prospects showed potential throughout the 2025 season, infielder and outfielder Cam Smith. However, Houston struggled at times throughout the season. Pitcher Hunter Brown broke out after a miserable 2024 season, becoming one of the league’s bright, young stars. The rest of the rotation struggled down the stretch. Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader shone in 2025, holding down the back-half of the bullpen. Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Jeremy Pena shone; however, newcomer Christian Walker struggled in his first season in Houston. Yanier Diaz has become one of the best catchers in baseball over the past few seasons as well, making this lineup a solid one.
Houston made an impressive trade deadline acquisition last season, trading for former Astro Carlos Correa to play third base. 2026 will be his first season with the team since 2021. The only big move Houston made during the offseason was signing NPB star pitcher Tatsuya Imai to a three-year contract, helping fill the void of losing All-Star Framber Valdez to the Detroit Tigers.
I believe Houston’s lineup will bounce back after an inconsistent 2025. However, I am worried about the starting rotation, as the back-half of the rotation has more questions than answers. With injury concerns with Lance McCullers and the inconsistent pitching of Spencer Arrighetti, I am worried about the reliability of the starting rotation. Fortunately for Houston fans, General Manager Dana Brown is not scared to pull the trigger at the deadline, trading for valuable, win-now assets. I expect nothing different in 2026, but for now I am going to ride the under.
Prediction: Under 85.5 Wins
Texas Rangers – 83.5 Wins
2025 Record – 81-81 (3rd Place in the American League West)
In 2023, the Texas Rangers won their first World Series in the franchise’s history. They have become one of the biggest spenders in baseball. Since winning the World Series, they have not made the postseason, playing .500 baseball. The 2026 season is a pivotal year for Texas, and this offseason has proven that this season is make-or-break.
Texas is coming off another mediocre season; however, they have serious star power in the American League. The healthy duo of Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi is considered to be one of the best pitching duos in baseball. Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker are former top prospects in the organization who have the potential to be good starters in baseball. In the lineup, there is some good talent; however, there are holes in it. Led by Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford, the rest of the lineup is about average. Josh Smith, Josh Jung, and Evan Carter are decent bats that have shown great promise in the past.
Early in the offseason, Texas departed with Marcus Semien, trading the infielder to the New York Mets for fan-favorite Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo fills a big hole in the outfield, bringing solid defense and an above-average bat. However, the big acquisition is easily left-hander MacKenzie Gore from the Washington Nationals. With this addition, Texas may have one of the best and deepest rotations in all of baseball.
I am very high on the Texas Rangers, barring injuries. However, with this squad, they have shown to be an injury-riddled squad over the past two seasons. If deGrom and Eovaldi can stay healthy at the top of the rotation, the starting rotation and bullpen for Texas could propel them to the postseason. The lineup is decent, but they need another jump from Wyatt Langford and progression from Evan Carter. Overall, I think Texas will beat its win projection, but not by much.
Prediction: Over 83.5 Wins
Athletics – 75.5 Wins
2025 Record – 76-86 (4th Place in the American League West)
After years of being the laughing stock of baseball, the Athletics have quietly been improving year by year. After winning 76 games last season, the Athletics’ farm system has made its mark on the franchise. Even with the controversial decision to move out of Oakland, the future of the organization is in good hands, especially from the season we saw in 2025.
The Athletics are one of the most underrated lineups in all of baseball, showing off their potential in 2025. First baseman Nick Kurtz has become a young superstar after just one season in the majors. However, the rest of the lineup is just as promising. Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, and Jacob Wilson are all under the age of 25 and Wilson and Soderstrom are long-term Athletics, signing extensions. Denzel Clarke and Lawrence Butler struggled offensively last season, but they are looking to bounce back. The veteran Brent Rooker has consistently been atop the league’s most underrated batters. This lineup was solid last season, but the starting rotation was not so great. With Luis Severino as the ace, the rotation is lacking the same talent as the lineup.
The Athletics have stayed relatively quiet this offseason, but they have made headlines with their contract extensions. Jacob Wilson and Tyler Sodstorm both signed seven-year extensions this offseason, carving a long-term role in the Athletics rotation. Long-time New York Met Jeff McNeil was acquired in a trade, making his way into the lineup for the Athletics.
The Athletics are one of my favorite teams for 2026. The lineup is one of the deepest in baseball, and they have the bats of a playoff-bound team. However, the starting rotation and bullpen have a lot to prove in 2026. Luis Severino is a good starting pitcher; however, he is not built to be the ace of a playoff team. Even with these question marks, I still love the Athletics for 2026.
Prediction: Over 76.5 Wins
Los Angeles Angels – 70.5 Wins
2025 Record – 72-90 (Last Place in the American League West)
The Athletics may have been one of the MLB laughing stocks for the past few seasons, but the Los Angeles Angels have been a laughing stock for over a decade. They have essentially wasted one of the best players in MLB history’s career and wasted a few years of the most talented baseball player the world has ever seen. Even with all of that talent, it has been years since Los Angeles put together a playoff team, and things look to be the same in 2026.
Mike Trout is still headlining this roster, but he has been on the decline for the past two seasons. Injuries have ruined his the back-half of his historic career. Former top prospect Jo Adell broke out in 2025, hitting a career high of 37 home runs. Zach Neto had a career year as well, and it looks like Los Angeles has two future offensive forces in their lineup. The rest of the lineup is solid, headlined by youngsters Nolan Schanuel, Logan O’Hoppe, and Christian Moore. The starting rotation is not deep, but they have made some interesting moves to help it out.
Los Angeles started their offseason by trading veteran Taylor Ward to the Baltimore Orioles for former top pitching prospect Greyson Rodriguez. While Rodriguez has a lengthy injury history, Los Angeles may have found a gem as G-Rod has loads of potential. They overhauled the bullpen, adding arms like Kirby Yates, Jordan Romero, Drew Pomeranz, and Brent Suter. The most interesting addition to their roster is former All-Star Alek Manoah. If Los Angeles could find a sliver of Manoah’s past success, this could be a great comeback story. Offensively, outfielder Josh Lowe adds another power bat to the outfield.
It is hard to say the Los Angeles Angels have a chance in a great American League West. With minimal effort to improve the team over the past decade, I am so out on the organization as a whole. With a lackluster rotation, their lineup is not good enough to carry the full load. It would be cool to see this team win and make the postseason, but if they are struggling at the trade deadline, we could see an overhaul of prospects heading their way.
Prediction: Under 70.5 Wins
This is the last division to cover before the start of the season. As the World Baseball Classic is underway, the rest of the baseball is preparing for the start of the regular season. Each team has bright spots, but some teams have more weaknesses than others. The Seattle Mariners are projected to be one of the best teams in the American League, but I wouldn’t sleep on the rest of the division. Just like 2025, this division will be a dog-fight until the end.
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