As February unfolds this college basketball season, three conferences are separating themselves from the rest of the country. Last week, I argued that the Big Ten is the nation’s deepest conference in NCAA Tournament contenders. This week, I turn to another powerhouse, the Big 12. While the Big Ten may end up sending 11 teams to the tournament, the Big 12 boasts four to six legitimate national title contenders, including four ranked in this week’s AP top 10. Here is a closer look at one of the strongest conferences in college basketball this season.
** All tournament seed predictions as of Monday, February 9
Safely In The Tournament Field
#1 Arizona Wildcats (23-1, 10-1)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 1 Seed
Entering this week, Arizona was one of two remaining undefeated teams in the nation. On Monday night, the Wildcats suffered their first loss on the road to a Kansas team without star Darryn Peterson. Despite the defeat, Arizona remains firmly on the one-seed line with one of the two best résumés in college basketball. This team is unique for two reasons. First, they attempt the lowest rate of three-point shots among Power Five teams, even though they shoot the three-point shot fairly efficiently. Second, they lack a single true star, instead relying on seven players who are capable of being the best player on the floor on any given night. Senior point guard Jaden Bradley leads the group after seeing his role grow each of the last three seasons. He is joined by potential top-20 NBA Draft picks, freshmen Brayden Burries and Koa Peat. 7’2” center Motiejus Krivas anchors the conference’s best defense and is a national Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The roster is so deep that coach Tommy Lloyd can bring double-double threat Tobe Awaka off the bench. Arizona faces one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country, which will test their current hold on a one seed. Still, the Wildcats’ rotational depth and limited reliance on three-point variance give them perhaps the highest floor in the country. The only way Arizona loses in March would be against another really strong team playing their best game. If I had to lock in one team for the Sweet 16 today, it would be Arizona.
#3 Houston Cougars (22-2, 10-1)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 2 Seed
The Houston Cougars entered this week as my top two seed, but will likely move to the fourth one seed when I release my updated bracket on Friday. According to Bart Torvik, Houston has been the nation’s top team since January 1, with their only Big 12 loss coming on the road to Texas Tech. This group looks different from last season’s national runner-up and other Kelvin Sampson-led Houston teams of the past. They are not as deep, start two freshmen, and score more than recent Houston teams that were built around veteran defensive toughness. Talented freshman guard Kingston Flemings leads the way and erupted for 42 points in the loss to Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago. A likely top ten pick, Flemings has elevated the team’s ceiling. Senior guard tandem Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan also return. Sharp remains the team’s best perimeter shooter, while Uzan has embraced a larger defensive role and handles secondary playmaking duties. 6’8” junior forward Joseph Tugler, last season’s Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, anchors yet another top ten defense. Kelvin Sampson has built yet another legitimate title contender that will be a major factor in March.
#5 Iowa State Cyclones (21-3, 8-3)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 2 Seed
After an undefeated non-conference run highlighted by an 81-58 win over Purdue at Mackey Arena, Iowa State has settled into the middle of the two-seed range in Big 12 play. The Cyclones opened league play 3-0, dropped back-to-back road games against Kansas and Cincinnati, then responded with a five-game winning streak. Despite a tough road loss to TCU on Tuesday, enough movement across the top ten this week should keep ISU on the two-line for the weekend. Iowa State is led by do-it-all, glue guy-extraordinare Joshua Jefferson, who averages 17.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. He deserves serious first-team All-American consideration and would have a strong National Player of the Year case if not for Duke’s Cameron Boozer. 6’8” forward Milan Momcilovic leads the team in scoring and tops the nation in three-point percentage at 52%, giving the Cyclones an elite, polished offensive weapon that unlocks their championship capabilities. Senior point guard Tamin Lipsey rounds out the “big three”, leading the Big 12 in steals and ranking in the top five in assists. With strong role players such as freshmen guards Killyan Toure and Jamarion Batemon, Iowa State has the depth to contend. Size could present challenges for the Cyclones in certain matchups, but the Cyclones’ shooting and cohesion give them legitimate Final Four potential. A demanding stretch awaits, beginning Saturday with a chance for revenge against the Jayhawks.
#9 Kansas Jayhawks (19-5, 9-2)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 2 Seed
The Kansas Jayhawks are a team that is quickly climbing my projected seed list. After falling to a five seed in mid-January following a loss to West Virginia, they have won eight straight, including victories over Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, and Arizona on Monday. Much of that momentum, however, has been overshadowed by the ongoing situation surrounding star freshman Darryn Peterson. As a true freshman, Peterson may be the most gifted offensive player in college basketball in the past 15 years and the most talented NBA prospect I have seen at the collegiate level. Simply put, there is nothing he cannot do on the offensive side of the ball. Yet he has missed 11 of 24 games with various injuries and illnesses, and even when active, he often sits extended stretches due to cramping or other issues. Preseason concerns centered on the supporting cast around Peterson, but that group has overdelivered. When Peterson exits, transfer guard Melvin Council Jr. seemingly always takes over with his speed and scoring. Illinois transfer Tre White has improved as a three-point shooter this season while thriving in a small-ball four role. Sophomore forward Flory Bidunga is one of the most improved players in the country and has emerged as a national Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Peterson’s availability remains a concern, which frightens me down the stretch, but in what was expected to be a down year, Bill Self has Kansas firmly back among the nation’s top teams.
#16 Texas Tech Red Raiders (18-6, 8-3)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 4 Seed
Texas Tech posted two of the nation’s most notable non-conference results: a 30-point loss to Purdue in the Baha Mar Championship Game and a comeback win over Duke at Madison Square Garden. Since the start of 2026, the Red Raiders have split with Houston, beaten BYU, and lost to UCF and Kansas, settling into the four to five seed range in Big 12 play. They are led by reigning Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin, one of two league players averaging a double-double. Coach Grant McCasland has built the roster around Toppin with tons of perimeter shooting, anchored by point guard Christian Anderson, who leads the conference in assists and minutes. Anderson is one of the smallest players in the conference, and he has the ultimate green light. Shooters Donovan Atwell, LeJuan Watts, and Jaylen Petty do an excellent job of spacing the floor and freeing Toppin to control the paint. My biggest concern with Texas Tech is their reliance on Toppin and Anderson. If an opponent can neutralize one of them, depth could become an issue. Still, both are absolutely capable of carrying Texas Tech to the second weekend.
#22 BYU Cougars (18-6, 6-5)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 7 Seed
BYU was tracking toward a possible two seed before losing five of six games, but a road win at Baylor on Tuesday likely moves the Cougars back to the six line in my next bracket update. Kevin Young’s team ranks fourth nationally in offensive efficiency on KenPom and first in the Big 12, though their defense sits 56th. Despite being outdueled by Darryn Peterson head-to-head, freshman wing AJ Dybantsa is the probable Big 12 Freshman of the Year, leads the nation in scoring, and is a projected top three NBA Draft pick. He effortlessly glides to the rim in a Tracy McGrady-like fashion and really thrives in BYU’s free-flowing, NBA-style offense. High-volume shooter Richie Saunders and much-improved Baylor transfer point guard Robert Wright III complement him, as all three rank among the Big 12’s top ten qualified scorers. There are obvious concerns with BYU’s defense that are being exploited in Big 12 play, but upcoming games against Arizona, Iowa State, and Texas Tech will test whether BYU can resolve those issues before March.
UCF Knights (17-6, 6-5)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 9 Seed
UCF sits just above the bubble and has largely flown under the national radar. With the league’s top six teams being so dominant, quality wins have been scarce, but UCF’s home victories over Kansas and Texas Tech keep the Knights in the field. Their seed did take a hit after blowout losses to Houston and Cincinnati last week. UCF owns the lowest defensive efficiency on KenPom among any potential NCAA tournament at-large teams. Johnny Dawkins has built a deep roster of capable role players who have done enough to stay in contention. Fifth-year guard Themus Fulks ranks second in the Big 12 in assists per game, and senior Riley Kugel, a transfer from Florida and Mississippi State, leads the team in scoring. UCF may be closer to the bubble on Selection Sunday, and to me, concerns about their defense and lack of a true go-to scorer limit their upside in March.
On The Bubble
Oklahoma State Cowboys (16-8, 4-7)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 11 Seed (Last 4 In)
Oklahoma State is a team that has been falling in my bracket over the past month. After a 12-1 non-conference run that included a win over Texas A&M and a loss to Oklahoma, the Cowboys have struggled in Big 12 play. A marquee win over BYU last week was followed by a blowout loss to Arizona and a poor road defeat against Arizona State, likely pushing back to the wrong side of the bubble. Steve Lutz’s team is guard-heavy and prefers to push the tempo. Anthony Roy, Jaylen Curry, and Kanye Clary, all 6’3” or shorter, lead the way. Size is my biggest concern if the Cowboys reach March, but when they control tempo, they can challenge anyone in the league.
Baylor Bears (13-11, 3-9)
Tournament Seed Prediction: Next Four Out
Baylor’s bubble hopes are hanging on by a thread. Non-conference wins over Creighton and San Diego State have not aged well, and the Bears have struggled in Big 12 play. Scott Drew’s team risks missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2018. Defense has been the primary issue, as Baylor ranks 107th nationally in defensive efficiency on KenPom. The addition of former NBA draft pick James Nnaji has not made the expected impact. Offensively, the Bears rely on Tennessee transfer Cameron Carr and freshman Tounde Yessoufou, who each average more than 18 points per game. Drew will need a quick turnaround to secure a seventh straight tournament appearance in 2026.
Best of the Rest
Among the rest of the league, TCU (15-9, 5-6) inspires the most confidence as a tournament contender. A key win over Iowa State this week revived their tournament résumé, though a season-opening loss to New Orleans still lingers. Guards Brock Harding and Jayden Pierre lead the offense alongside defensive anchor David Punch. TCU is one of the conference’s better defensive teams, and if their offense improves, they could be dangerous. West Virginia (15-9, 6-5) is another defense-first team entering the bubble picture. Outside of a win over Kansas, they have struggled against top Big 12 opponents. North Dakota transfer Treysen Eaglestaff and North Texas transfers Jasper Floyd and Brenen Lorient pace the defense, while point guard Honor Huff logs heavy minutes and directs the offense. A few quality wins in late February would greatly strengthen their case. Cincinnati (13-12, 5-7) also deserves credit for ranking among the nation’s top ten defenses. Baba Miller, Moustapha Thiam, and Sencire Harris anchor that unit, while Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James handle most of the perimeter scoring. The Bearcats are the team most likely to play spoiler down the stretch. Finally, Kansas State’s P.J. Haggerty ranks second nationally in scoring, trailing only BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, despite the Wildcats’ struggles. Jerome Tang has few answers, and the season has fallen short of expectations, as exemplified by the following quote. You can watch the full presser at the link below.
*I update our website’s Bracketology results every Friday, which you can find here. If you enjoyed this article, check out our next podcast, which will be live on YouTube at 6 p.m. CT on Sunday, February 15.
