In 2026, the Big Ten has emerged as the nation’s deepest and richest conference in terms of NCAA Tournament contenders. I currently project that 11 of the conference’s 18 teams will compete for a national title in March, including five ranked in the AP Poll’s top 12. Throughout the rest of the College Basketball season, I’ll preview each major conference, offering my insight on every team that may appear in March Madness to help you prepare for filling out your bracket. With that, let’s dive into the Big Ten preview.
** All tournament seed predictions as of Monday, February 2
Safely In The Tournament Field
#2 Michigan Wolverines (21-1, 11-1)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 1 Seed
Michigan has been the top story in the Big Ten this season, and the attention is well deserved. During Feast Week, the Wolverines announced themselves with 30-plus point wins over San Diego State, Auburn, and Gonzaga. They boast the nation’s top KenPom-rated defense, anchored by a massive frontcourt of Yaxel Lendeborg (6’9”), Morez Johnson Jr. (6’9”), and Aday Mara (7’3”). Since non-conference play, Michigan has somewhat returned to Earth, suffering its lone loss to Wisconsin on January 10 after a historically efficient Badgers’ offensive performance. The clearest path to beating Michigan is forcing them into a three-point shootout, where they are merely average. Even so, the Wolverines’ size, defensive ability, and sheer talent make them a national title contender who can beat any team across the floor. Their Big Ten hopes may hinge on a pivotal February 27 matchup at Illinois, which is shaping up to be the league’s most important game of the season.
#5 Illinois Fighting Illini (20-3, 11-1)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 2 Seed
Illinois has been the Big Ten’s hottest team over the past month, riding a 12-game winning streak. The Illini boast the nation’s top KenPom offense, fueled by the rise of freshman guard Keaton Wagler. Since taking over lead guard duties in December, Wagler has driven the offense, apexing in a 46-point outburst in a road win over top-five Purdue. He is supported by Brad Underwood’s crew of Balkan big men, including freshman forward David Mirkovic and twin centers Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic. All three stretch the floor, and Zvonimir has also emerged as an elite rim protector. Illinois should improve further when senior leader Kylan Boswell returns from a wrist injury. Offensively, the Illini excel at using ball screens to create mismatches, making them nearly unstoppable when shots fall. Their main vulnerability in recent games has been allowing open three-pointers, which may be the clearest avenue for opponents to exploit down the stretch.
#9 Nebraska Cornhuskers (20-2, 9-2)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 2 Seed
Nebraska basketball is a projected 2 seed in February. Not a typo. Fred Hoiberg’s program has steadily risen over the past five seasons, and an injury-plagued 2025 gave way to a strong 2026 squad. The Huskers were one of the nation’s last unbeaten teams before losing to Michigan on January 27 and now look to rebound after a February 1 loss to Illinois to stay in the Big Ten’s top tier. This group perfectly embodies the saying that “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.” Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort leads the way as one of the conference’s best shooters, while freshman Braden Frager has emerged as an elite bench contributor. Rienk Mast anchors the frontcourt and serves as a connector on both ends, and Sam Hoiberg provides relentless energy and defensive pressure despite his size. Nebraska plays connected, veteran basketball, limits turnovers, and capitalizes on open looks, though they can be vulnerable to the three-point shot defensively. All season long, many have been waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Huskers, but it has yet to happen. This is a well-oiled machine with a strong chance to win the first NCAA Tournament game in program history.
#12 Purdue Boilermakers (18-4, 8-3)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 3 Seed
After entering 2026 as the preseason No. 1 team, Purdue has been mildly disappointing. I currently project the Boilermakers as the top three seed (or #9 team nationally). They built a strong non-conference résumé with wins over Alabama, Texas Tech, and Auburn, though a blowout home loss to Iowa State lingered. Purdue then opened Big Ten play 7-0 before dropping three straight to UCLA, Illinois, and Indiana. The team is led by All-American point guard Braden Smith, who continues to climb the NCAA all-time assists list. His long-time backcourt running mate, Fletcher Loyer, has struggled with his shot recently but showed signs of a turnaround with a near 30-point performance against Maryland. All-American hopeful Trey Kaufman-Renn has regressed somewhat, in part due to the addition of big man Oscar Cluff from South Dakota State. Driven by Smith, Purdue owns the nation’s second-most efficient offense, but, like last year’s team, lacks elite rim protection. This veteran group arguably has the highest floor in the country, though their ceiling remains a question. An early tournament upset seems unlikely to me, but teams with multiple scoring threats with the ability to score at the rim could pose problems in March.
#10 Michigan State Spartans (19-4, 9-3)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 3 Seed
Tom Izzo has once again turned a largely unheralded roster into a Big Ten contender. Michigan State was steady early but has struggled recently, surviving Rutgers in overtime before losses to Michigan and Minnesota. Like Purdue, the Spartans are driven by a veteran point guard in Jeremy Fears Jr., one of the most ball-dominant players in the country. The offense runs almost entirely through him, and while his talent and leadership are clear, his “unethical” style has drawn criticism, especially on Wednesday night against Minnesota. The backbone of this team is the frontcourt duo of Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, who have both improved significantly across several years in East Lansing and anchor the conference’s second-best defense. Rounding out the main players, human highlight reel Coen Carr is due for at least one jaw-dropping dunk per game. Michigan State excels at limiting second-chance points and wearing opponents down, but outside shooting remains a concern, with Fears and Carr posing little threat from deep. Keeping them out of the paint is the clearest path to beating the Spartans. While in my opinion, a deep March run seems unlikely, Izzo’s teams often exceed my expectations, and this group could very well do the same.
Iowa Hawkeyes (17-5, 7-4)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 9 Seed
After the top five teams in the conference, there is a cavernous drop-off, but Iowa has been the best of the rest. In his first season coming from Drake, Ben McCollum has brought the Hawkeyes back into tournament contention. Iowa plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, values possessions, and looks for the best shot each trip down the floor. Reigning Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz is second in the league in minutes per game, and to say that he is the focal point of the offense is a major understatement. Few players in the country are more vital to their team. When Stirtz controls the game and his teammates make shots, Iowa’s offense hums. But when opponents limit his impact, the Hawkeyes quickly look average. As a potential No. 9 seed, Iowa could challenge a No. 1 on the right day, but they still lack a true marquee win this season.
Wisconsin Badgers (16-6, 8-3)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 9 Seed
After a largely uninspiring non-conference showing, Wisconsin has surged to a projected No. 9 seed following their road win at Michigan. While the Badgers’ résumé may be among the flimsiest in this tier of the conference, that victory stands as one of the best wins by any team in America this season. Historically, Wisconsin’s best teams have been driven by a triumvirate of guards. In 2022, it was Chucky Hepburn, Johnny Davis, and Brad Davison, followed last season by John Blackwell, John Tonje, and Max Klesmit. This year, Blackwell returns alongside San Diego State transfer Nick Boyd and sharpshooter Braeden Carrington. The difference this season is junior forward Nolan Winter, who has quietly become a double-double threat in the Big Ten. Wisconsin has shown us their upside against top competition and their volatility in some early-season blowout losses. With one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules, the Badgers must sustain their current level of play to remain in the “safely in the tournament field” group.
On The Bubble
Indiana Hoosiers (15-8, 6-6)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 10 Seed (Last 4 Byes)
Indiana is currently on the right side of the bubble after back-to-back wins last week over Purdue and UCLA. Under first-year head coach Darian DeVries (formerly of Drake and one year at West Virginia), the Hoosiers are pushing for a return to the NCAA Tournament following a couple of lean seasons under Mike Woodson. The offense is led by two-time former Missouri Valley Player of the Year Tucker DeVries, who has developed into a do-it-all point forward role. Sam Houston State transfer guard Lamar Wilkerson is the ultimate bucker-getter and is one of only three Big Ten players averaging 20 points per game. Junior forward Nick Dorn has also emerged recently as a scoring threat from beyond the arc. The concerns with this team remain the offense’s one-dimensional nature and their struggles defending the interior against superior teams. I wouldn’t say this group is ready for March yet, but their remaining schedule offers opportunities to address those issues before Selection Sunday.
USC Trojans (17-6, 6-6)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 10 Seed (Last 4 Byes)
After an undefeated non-conference run, USC has come back to Earth in 2026 and has settled in at .500 in league play. Credit goes to coach Eric Musselman for keeping the Trojans competitive despite constant injuries and rarely having a full roster. At full strength, this would be a difficult matchup thanks to length at every position. Longtime college basketball veteran Chad Baker-Mazara (who recently celebrated his 26th birthday) leads the team in scoring. Baker-Mazara is supported by the frontcourt tandem of interior scoring presence Ezra Ausar and defensive stalwart Jacob Cofie. With lauded Maryland transfer Rodney Rice sidelined, Kam Woods has emerged as a perimeter scoring threat, and freshman guard Alijah Arenas (son of former NBA All-Star Gilbert Arenas) has recently returned from injury and begun contributing meaningful minutes in their most recent win over Indiana. USC thrives on physicality and getting to the free-throw line, but lacks reliable outside shooting without Rice. There’s a chance all of the rotational inconsistency could plague this team in March, but the Muss Bus seemingly always overperforms in the tournament. Don’t be shocked to see this team make the Sweet 16.
UCLA Bruins (16-7, 8-4)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 11 Seed (Last 4 In)
Before the season, UCLA fans would have been disappointed to hear the Bruins sitting in the Last Four In category. After struggling against a soft non-conference schedule, UCLA has fought back into the field, highlighted by their January 20 win over Purdue. The Bruins have five double-figure scorers, led by senior forward Tyler Bilodeau, one of the conference’s best stretch fours. New Mexico transfer Donovan Dent has underwhelmed to this point, but ranks third in the league in assists, only trailing Braden Smith and Jeremy Fears. Sophomore guard Trent Perry has ascended as a key contributor, while forward Eric Dailey provides steady double-figure scoring. UCLA’s ceiling may depend on the return of senior guard Skyy Clark, the team’s best perimeter defender, from a hamstring injury. With Clark, the Bruins look like a top 25 team. Without him, I’m not certain their floor is high enough to knock off a higher seed in March. At the very least, UCLA is a team to keep an eye on down the stretch, as they still have yet to face four of the top five teams in the conference, and each week, coach Mick Cronin is reaching new levels of curmudgeonliness.
Ohio State Buckeyes (15-7, 7-5)
Tournament Seed Prediction: 11 Seed (Last 4 In)
Ohio State barely squeaks in to my projected tournament field, which says more about the weakness of the 2026 bubble than the Buckeyes themselves. Their lone win over another projected tournament team came against UCLA on January 17, yet they have done just enough to stay above the cut line. Ohio State is driven by its core trio of Bruce Thornton, John Mobley Jr., and Devin Royal. Thornton is the engine, averaging 19.5 points in 36.5 minutes per game and serving as the senior leader seeking his first NCAA Tournament appearance in four years with the program. Mobley is a walking heat check with limitless range, while Royal provides physical scoring in the paint as a 6’6” forward. Beyond those three, the Buckeyes lack consistent offensive help, which could jeopardize their chances at a tournament bid if no one steps up. Jake Diebler may be coaching for his job and will need his veteran guards to deliver down the stretch. Ohio State can compete with anyone when Thornton and Mobley are rolling, but if either struggles, a short stay seems likely in March.
Best of the Rest
The Washington Huskies (12-11, 4-8) sit just outside my first eight teams to miss the tournament. They are another team where injuries have derailed their season, but the talent is there. German freshman forward Hannes Steinbach has been a bright spot, averaging 18 points and 11.5 rebounds. Northwestern’s Nick Martinelli also deserves recognition, ranking top five nationally in scoring at 22.8 points per game despite limited team success. Minnesota is the textbook instance of a “Sneaky Not Ass” Big Ten basketball team, highlighted by their upset of Michigan State on Wednesday (if you listen to the podcast, you understand). First-year coach Niko Medved has done an excellent job, and the Gophers will likely continue to play spoiler down the stretch. Also, Penn State freshman guard Kayden Mingo merits All-Freshman Team consideration with 14 points and five assists per game, while Rutgers’ Tariq Francis has been one of the league’s top bench pieces, scoring 16.5 points per game off the bench and putting himself in the Sixth Man of the Year conversation.
*I update our website’s Bracketology results every Friday, which you can find here. If you enjoyed this article, check out our next podcast, which will be live on YouTube at 9 a.m. CT on Saturday, February 7.
