For back-to-back seasons, the National League West has had a team hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy, winning the World Series. The National League West is deep heading into 2026, with four teams that could make the postseason. In the past three years, a National League West team has made the World Series, and they have all been competitive for years. The history between every team in this division makes for some of the best baseball in the majors.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have dominated the past two seasons. The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants have been successful and have fought for the division crown, but they have fallen short. Arizona has been competitive as well, and well, the Colorado Rockies… are the Colorado Rockies.
Like the National League Central and East, I will be giving my over/under win projections for the National League West for the 2026 season.
*Win projections are from FanDuel and other statistical research is from Baseball Reference.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 103.5 Wins
Los Angeles has been the most dominant team in baseball for the past two seasons. With the addition of Shohei Ohtani and the overhaul of high-paid talent, Los Angeles has become one of the most talented rosters baseball has ever seen. Fans have become frustrated and upset with the organization with the way they are spending money (read more about it in this article) and how they have the ability to sign and acquire any player in the sport. Regardless of how you feel about the team, they are on track to win a third consecutive championship.
As I mentioned earlier, Shohei Ohtani is arguably the biggest acquisition for a team in MLB history. He has won back-to-back MVP awards and has the highest odds to win the award heading into 2026. Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith help make this lineup even more deadly, and they just added All-Star Kyle Tucker to the mix. Even with such a great lineup, the starting rotation is the best part about the team. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto headline an incredibly deep rotation with a great bullpen to follow.
Almost all of Los Angeles’ roster from last season is under contract for this upcoming season, so not much is changing. The addition of Kyle Tucker will fill the void in the outfield and help add even more star power. Former Reliever of the Year Edwin Diaz adds another dynamic arm in the bullpen.
103.5 games is a lot, and even with a star-studded team, Los Angeles found themselves in the Wild Card Series and did not finish as a top two team in the National League. They are the betting favorite to win the World Series, and they should be, but when it comes to winning that many games, there are so many different variables that can happen. However, they are my pick to win the National League West.
Prediction: Under 103.5 Wins
San Diego Padres – 84.5 Wins
San Diego has always lived in the shadow of the Los Angeles Dodgers, because no matter how much money they have spent, San Diego has fallen short of the World Series. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been known to swing for the fences with trades and free agent acquisitions; however, the success has been lacking in that department as of late. Even though they are consistently behind Los Angeles, they still have the firepower to be competitive against any team in baseball.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are the two most important players on the roster, and they have been for the past half-decade. Jackson Merrill is looking to bounce back after an injury-riddled sophomore season. The rest of the lineup is solid, but not great. Jake Croneworth and Xander Bogarts are decent offensively up the middle, and outside of Machado and Tatis, this squad lacks star power. The addition of Sung-Mun Song from the KBO could be a sneaky good addition for San Diego with his versatility around the diamond. Michael King resigned this offseason, and even while dealing with injury last season, he has performed at a great level for the past few seasons. King, Nick Pivetta, and Joe Musgrove have a firm grasp on the rotation and will be looked upon as the team’s go-to starters.
San Diego lost a good chunk of talent this offseason. Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Robert Suarez, and Ryan O’Hearn are some of the key losses San Diego will be challenged with replacing. While losing Cease to a big-time contract, starters Griffin Canning and German Marquez are going to be looked up to help lock down the back half of the rotation.
The San Diego Padres are one of the most confusing teams in baseball. They have high upside talent throughout their roster, but they also have overpaid, average talent offensively and in their rotation. It feels like they are the Chicago Bulls of the MLB. They are in purgatory.
Prediciton: Under 84.5 Wins
San Francisco Giants – 81.5 Wins
Last season, the San Francisco Giants made big splashes in free agency and before the trade deadline. They first signed shortstop Willy Adams to a long-term contract, as well as trading for All-Star Rafael Devers in a blockbuster deal during the season. After what seemed to be a great offseason, San Francisco disappointed fans, finishing at third place in the National League West with an 81-81 record.
As I mentioned, Willy Adames and Rafael Devers were added to this lineup for some star power, and they are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2025 campaign. Matt Chapman holds down third base as one of the best defenders in the game. Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee have shown flashes of being great offensive players. Youngsters Bryce Eldridge and Drew Gilbert should be given opportunities to make a great impact with San Francisco this season. Logan Webb and Robbie Ray are coming off great seasons and will look to continue to be great starters.
President of baseball operations Buster Posey has been busy with improving San Francisco’s depth. Starters Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle are coming off great seasons in 2025 and should help with starting depth throughout the season. In the lineup, Luis Arraez and Harrison Bader are coming in to provide great bat-to-ball skills, and Hader is a terrific defender in center field.
I genuinely like the San Francisco Giants this season. Buster Posey has done a great job of creating a solid team. He is spending money in the right places, and even though they have swung and missed on potential superstars (Aaron Judge), he has continued to put San Francisco in a winning position. They finished 81-81 last season, and this is a much-improved team.
Prediction: Over 81.5 Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks – 79.5 Wins
Back in 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world and represented the National League in the World Series. They finished the season 84-78 and held the last Wild Card spot for the National League. Since this World Series appearance, Arizona has not been able to capture the same success, even missing the postseason all together last season. After semi-selling at the trade deadline last season, Arizona could be in for another disappointing season.
Corbin Carroll is one of the best players in baseball, and at just 25-years old, he has the potential to be one of the franchise’s best players ever. Superstar acquisition Corbin Burnes required Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2026, which makes the starting rotation quite weak. The lineup is young and fast, including 2025 breakout Geraldo Perdomo, Alek Thomas, Gabriel Moreno, and Jordan Lawlar. Veteran Ketel Marte is one of Arizona’s best players in the franchise’s history and is still playing at a high level. Starter Zac Gallen has returned for another season, trying to find the same success he had during an incredible 2023 season.
Nolan Arenado is Arizona’s biggest offseason acquisition and will be the everyday third baseman for the time being. After being dealt at the deadline by Arizona this past season, Merrill Kelly has returned on a short-term contract, giving Arizona a reliable starter for 162.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are a young, gritty team that has shown what they are capable of doing when healthy. However, health is a concern. With Corbin Burnes out for 2026, Arizona is going to depend on back-end rotation pieces to help carry the load, which could be a mistake. With a good lineup and a decent rotation and bullpen, I see no reason why they couldn’t win 80 games.
Prediction: Over 79.5 Wins
Colorado Rockies – 54.5 Wins
There is almost nothing good about the Colorado Rockies, and they have been like this for almost a decade. Historically, the 2025 Colorado Rockies were one of the worst teams in MLB history, and could continue the horrible play into this season. This is a team that needs lots of work and rebuilding. Because they play in Colorado, you never know the outcome, but I believe Colorado is going to be on the wrong side of that outcome.
Colorado has interesting building blocks for the future. All-Star Hunter Goodman had an incredible 2025 season, and Ezequiel Tovar and Zac Veen are looking to bounce back in 2026 from injury and poor performance. Jordan Beck and Brenton Doyle have the outfield locked down, as they are both looking to create momentum heading into the next season. The starting rotation is poor, as Kyle Freeland headlines the rotation, which is a horrible thing to hear as a Colorado Rockies fan.
Besides Willi Castro, Colorado did not add any intriguing offensive pieces; however, they signed a varied bunch of veteran starters. Michael Lorenzen, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Jose Quintana are all newly signed veterans who could net Colorado prospect capital at the trade deadline.
Unfortunately, there is not much to say about this Colorado Rockies team. They are poor offensively and defensively, and their starting rotation is arguably the worst in all of baseball. However, they are better than they were last season. With a veteran filled starting rotation, they should win more games than last season and shouldn’t be historically bad like 2025. They will still finish at the bottom of the National League West for another season.
Prediction: Over 54.5 Wins
The National League West is a competitive division; however, with the Los Angeles Dodgers running the MLB, it is hard to envision anyone else competing for the division title. I believe that some teams will see improvement from last season, but others will continue to see a limited amount of success like previous seasons. I am excited for the MLB season and am intrigued to see how the National League West pans out.
