Major League Baseball has a fascinating way in which each team handles its contracts. Once a player is drafted and signs with the organization, their story is far from over. Players have to work their way up through the minor league system, all the way to the Major League roster. This can be a long period, multiple years in some cases, and teams have control of a player for quite sometime. Once you make the MLB roster, you will have three years of league-minimum salary and then three years of arbitration, giving the player a chance to advocate for more money and giving them to come to terms with their team to avoid arbitration. During this period, players realize the arbitration surplus that countless players have had to deal with.
Arbitration surplus is the difference between the amount of money they would be worth as a free agent and the amount they are currently being paid. For example, if a player’s production is worth $20 million on the open market but they are making $1 million, they are providing $19 million in surplus value. Once players are in a leverage position and their surplus value is at an all-time high, that is when trades or extensions become a topic of conversation.
With the impending lockout coming next year, teams could be scared to pay top dollar for a player they may not be able to afford in the future. Some teams never pay top talent, but they can gain prospect capital that will enhance their farm system. It could be looked at as a win-win, but some teams just can’t afford to pay top dollar talent.
Here is a list of players with high arbitration surplus and could be on the move during the 2026 season.
*My research is coming from Sports Reference and Baseball Savant
OF Steven Kwan – Cleveland Guardians
Steven Kwan broke out for the Cleveland Guardians in 2022 as a rookie. He finished that season with 5.7 WAR and 124 OPS+. He finished 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting as well as winning a Gold Glove award. Since his rookie season, his numbers have been consistently above-average and he has produced offensively and defensivly.
In 2025, Kwan had another productive season, finishing with 3.7 WAR, however, the offensive production was down, finishing with a 96 OPS+. That didn’t stop Kwan from being named to his second All-Star game. What makes Kwan so valuable is his defense combined with the offensive potential and speed on the base paths. Kwan is one of the best in baseball in Whiff % (8.7) and Strikeout % (8.7). He has an arm value of 7, which make him the best in baseball in that category. Who wouldn’t want an above-average hitter that doesn’t strikeout and is a consistent Gold Glove contender?
However, what make Kwan intriguing for teams throughout the MLB is the fact he has two years of control remaining before he is scheduled to hit free agency. For the 2026 season, he is making $7.725 million, being one of the biggest bargains in the MLB. Last season, Kwan’s name was thrown around in trade rumors, especially with Cleveland lacking success at the time. If Cleveland struggles once again near the trade deadline, we could see Steven Kwan steal headlines with a blockbuster move.
1B Vinnie Pasquantino – Kansas City Royals
The “Pasquatch” has been one of the most consistent offensive pieces in all of baseball. He made his Major League debut in 2022 and has posted a .760 OPS or higher in every season he has played. He is great defensively at first base, giving the Kansas City Royals a bargain of a player.
Pasquantino is coming off a career year, slugging more than ever with 32 home runs and 113 RBIs. Pasquantino’s best trait is his eye, having a solid walk/strikeout ratio throughout his career. 2025 was a different story, Pasquantino had a career high in walks, but added over 30 more strikeouts to the stats sheet. He is in the top half of the MLB in Whiff % (18.2) and Strikeout % (15.7).
The contract situation is even better than Kwan’s, as Kansas City and Pasquantino were able to agree on a two-year/$11.1 million contract extension in January of 2026. His arbitration surplus is high, especially with what Pasquantino brings to Kansas City. This means he is covered for the next two seasons, avoiding arbitration. He could become a hot comatity at the trade deadline, and if Jac Caglianone is the future at first base, this could make Pasquantino expendable in Kansas City.
RHP Bryce Miller – Seattle Mariners
Seattle has arguably the best starting rotation in all of baseball with guys like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Luis Castillo. However, Bryce Miller makes the rotation even more dynamic with him at the back-end. Miller has the ability to slot in any rotation and produce at a great level.
In 2024, Bryce Miller broke out, finishing with a 2.94 ERA through 31 games. Miller’s pitching run value, fastball run value, and offspeed run value were in the 95th percentile or higher, ranking him among the best in baseball. He struggled with injuries all throughout the 2025 season, finishing with a career-low 5.68 ERA. His underlying metrics did not help his case, and his baseball savant page is full of blue.
Miller is entering the 2026 season healthy and looking to click back into his 2024 self. Luckily for Seattle, he is coming into this season on a bargain of a contract. This is his first year being arbitration eligible, and Seattle and Miller were able to agree to a 1-year/$2.4 million contract. With three years of control left and a surplus of starting pitching talent in Seattle, my guess would be that Miller is one of the most talked about arms in all of baseball near the trade deadline. If he can tap into his 2024 self, then his arbitration surplus could skyrocket.
There are many other players that could be on this list and these players could end up getting extensions from their current teams. However, their situations intrigue me. Whether that is because of recent rumors, surplus at their position, or the expense that it will take to keep them, these players could be one the move. And if their play continues to improve like it has in years past, their arbitration surplus will skyrocket. Get ready for more MLB content throughout the summer, we will be delivering weekly content as always.
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